Wednesday, 26 March 2025

50 To Follow - 2025 Flat Season

50 To Follow - 2025 Flat Season

 

50 To Follow – 2025 Flat Season

by Owen Johnson


I would like to thank Owen for forwarding his 50 To Follow - 2025 Flat Season. He was good enough to forward an impressive list of winners last year In fact, it was one of the most post popular posts on the blog with several thousand page views. 

If you want to keep up to date, I would suggest you follow him on X @OwenJohnson4. Owen has a growing following and I can personally recommend his information and tips. The best way to appreciate someone's worth is by following them.     

Kalpana - Trainer: Andrew Balding

As is tradition with my fifty to follow, I like to get my 'obvious' horses out of the way to begin with. However, I had no hesitation in putting this Study Of Man filly in as she progressed throughout last season culminating in her win on Champions Day at Ascot in the Fillies & Mares. Kalapana was somewhat of a surprise package last season as she unexpectedly routed a field of decent handicappers at the Craven meeting by ten lengths, including Align The Stars who went on to win at Glorious Goodwood. It then seemed as if defeat was out of the question when she was extremely strong in the market to win the Pretty Polly back at Newmarket, in which she came off second best to Friendly Soul in a protracted duel on the Rowley Mile. But there was no shame in that, as despite Friendly Soul's disappointing run in the Musidora, she bounced back to remain unbeaten throughout the rest of her campaign in taking a Group 3, Group 2 and the prestigious Group 1 Prix De L'Opera on Arc Day. Kalapana herself then found the ground too quick at Royal Ascot when third in the Ribblesdale, but nearly a month later easily secured the Glasgow stakes at Hamilton Park. Given a freshen up after that she easily dismissed her rivals in the September Stakes by four and three quarter lengths, the fifth home that day Hamish went on to boost the form by winning a listed race at the Curragh by five lengths. As aforementioned Kalpana's season ended with victory in the Fillies & Mares on Champions Day. This showed for sure that she can cope with testing ground and with that in mind she should hopefully handle the likely testing conditions in the Arc De Triomphe, as that is her main aim this year. She is currently 20/1 with Betfair for the Arc which I think is a good price as she will likely take a similar route to last year's winner Bluestocking and given that currently Lake Victoria is heading the market with some firms for the Arc she could well be worth an interest now as I think I've got more chance of winning the Tour De France than Lake Victoria staying the Arc distance!

The Lion In Winter - Trainer: Aidan O'Brien

This lad came to my attention before he even made his debut at the Curragh as I was informed by a well-known bloodstock judge that this Sea The Stars colt was an impressive type and lots of the big players were looking at him. However, it was a surprise to see M V Magnier buy him for the Coolmore partners as Aidan O'Brien said after he won the Acomb: 'He's the only Sea The Stars we have'. Therefore he must have impressed the team as he had my friend for them to go to 375,000 Euros at the 2023 Goffs Orby Sale. Anyway The Lion In Winter made his debut on Irish Oaks Day and if you ever want to see a horse learning on the job in a maiden he would be it. As he ended up winning going away from Currawood, who was beaten subsequently at odds on next time at Naas, the third Ides Of March (also trained by Aiden O'Brien) won a maiden at the Curragh and then went back to win the Group three Round Tower Stakes. I then got to see The Lion In Winter in the flesh in the aforementioned Acomb Stakes at York and he didn't disappoint. Despite many pundits saying the quick seven furlongs at York would be too sharp for him, Ryan Moore was always up there in the van and from three out led all the way to the line in convincing fashion. The second that day Wimbledon Hawkeye went on to win the Royal Lodge on his next start before then finishing third on really deep ground in the Futurity. It was a shame that we didn't get to see The Lion In Winter after that as I'm sure he would have stamped himself as the champion two year old. However, after two runs I've seen enough to suggest he's a star in the making and I'm also sure he'll appreciate a step up in trip this year which is hopefully the case as I've got a nice 16/1 voucher for the Derby.

Desert Flower - Trainer: Charlie Appleby

This Night Of Thunder filly was another case of learning on the job when on debut and still managed to be impressive. Despite missing the break slightly and running green early on, she also won going away devouring the uphill rise to the line on Newmarket's July course. The second that day Flight made no mistake in winning a fillies maiden at Sandown next time by four lengths, before then having to see Desert Flower's backside again in the May Hill at Doncaster in which I was present. After seeing Desert Flower in the paddock, her calm demeanour really stood out and to boot she has large ears which the late great Sir Henry Cecil always looked for in his Fillies. It was therefore no surprise to see her comfortably land the contest by one and a half lengths. As is also tradition with May Hill winners their next port of call is the Fillies Mile at Newmarket and Desert Flower was devastating winning by five and a half lengths from January (a four length improvement on that of the May Hill) where despite edging right she once again powered away. It does seem that Desert Flower has an affinity with Newmarket and for my money she's the most likely winner of the 1,000 Guineas at this stage albeit Lake Victoria will not be an easy nut to crack.

Verse Of Love - Trainer - Charlie Appleby

On the same day that Desert Flower won the Fillies Mile this Siyouni filly also made her debut and it was a striking one. Despite running green and having to be pushed along inside the final furlong, it was a case of how far for Verse Of Love who had everyone signing her praises afterwards, to the extent that she is now 16/1 for the 1,000 Guineas. From what I was told, she is a lengthy and imposing filly which would be in contrast to her then stable companion Wild Angel, who finished second to her that day and on her next start was third to a filly Ralph Beckett told me: ' Could be special'. More on her in a minute but from what Verse of Love showed on debut I'd be more than hopeful she can enhance her claims further in either a Guineas trial or possibly something later down the line if she wasn’t to come to hand in the spring but she is a winner in waiting.

Bright Times Ahead - Trainer: Ralph Beckett

No prizes for guessing that this is the filly Ralph Beckett told me: 'Could be Special'. I chatted to him after he had just won the November Handicap with Lord Melbourne. Given time to mature and strengthen as a two year old we didn't see Bright Times Ahead until the second of November, but it was worth the wait! She travelled strongly and in the last furlong it was a case of when Hector Crouch was going to press the button. The response was pretty immediate and she won impressively by three and a half lengths. What was striking that day was the market confidence behind her, as late on the market couldn't keep as she was sent off the 13/8 favourite but a Betfair SP of 2.62 so the money certainly had kept coming in for her (which is always a positive given who owns her). Indeed Doreen Tabor had to go to 460,000 Euros at the 2023 Arqana August Yearling Sale with Bloodstock agent of the year Alex Elliott signing the ticket for her. It may have been a big price tag but from what we saw on debut and what Ralph Beckett told me everything suggests that there certainly are Bright Times Ahead for this Lope De Vega filly.

Banyan - Trainer: John & Thady Gosden

Given what I said about Bright Times Ahead the horses in behind were always going to be of interest despite the third's somewhat limited ability. But Banyan was also making her racecourse debut and ran like her pedigree suggests that she just wanted further. Weak in the market and seemingly the stable's second string on the day to Swiss Lightning, Banyan just took the eye in how she stayed on and although she was no match for the winner, it would be no surprise to see her break her maiden in a Newmarket or Newbury maiden come the spring over more of a test of stamina.

Cosmic Year - Trainer: Harry Charlton

Of all the horses in this list this fellow is the one I'm looking forward to seeing the most for a couple reasons. Firstly, the performance he put up at Sandown on debut was that of a top class performer in the making, as he bolted up by six and a half lengths. Secondly, the form of the race is starting to work out well as the second Rock d'Oro had already given the future Champagne Stakes winner Bay City Roller plenty to think about on his debut before being switched to America to join Jorge Delgardo's stable and quickly made an impact by breaking his maiden impressively at Tampa Bay Downs, albeit on the synthetic. Furthermore, the third from Sandown Quai De Bethune only this week came out and won easily at Kempton in what admittedly looked a weak race, however his trainer Andrew Balding said: ' he had been working well and that the Kentucky Derby Trail was the plan for his horse'. Despite all of this, what alerted to me to the fact that Cosmic Year could be a talented horse was the fact that Harry initially had wanted to run him in a seven furlong maiden at Newbury, a race that like his father Roger sent out their best two year old in. However it was too warm to risk him that day and even Harry said when interviewed after he won: ‘He lost quite a bit of weight coming back from the races that day so it was probably the right decision’. To boot Cosmic Year has a big pedigree being a full brother to Tempus and half-brother to Time Test and out of the classy mare Passage Of Time. I expect great things of this son of Kingman and I hope my 33/1 wager for the 2,000 Guineas is still alive after he takes in classic trail in the spring.

Windlord - Trainer: Andrew Balding   

Another Juddmonte owned colt with classic aspirations is this Dubawi colt. Always highly thought of, it was clear that he needed his first run when a promising fourth at Sandown before he went back to the Esher track when he had to give second best to Anno Domini who was given a 25/1 quote for the 2,000 Guineas immediately afterwards. Windlord then got off the mark in a class two novice at York by five and a half lengths and the second Shah had been second in the valuable Convivial maiden at York before that before winning decisively after getting put in his place by Windlord. Jockey Tom Marquand said : 'He didn't handle the ground that well'. It was off to Ireland for the Beresford next for Windlord in which he was very well supported in the market going off the 2/1 joint favourite with Hotazhell, who ended up taking the contest by three quarters of a length before then going onto win the Group 1 Futurity at Doncaster. The second that day Tennessee Stud also went onto win the Group One Criterium De Saint Cloud. However, I feel when he ran in Ireland the Irish did a bit of a job on Windlord and I think in a less tactical affair he can be seen to better effect in higher company. He is likely to head to a Derby trail in the spring with the Dante mooted as a possibility.

Regal Ulixes - Trainer: Andrew Balding

Another who could be heading for a Derby Trial from the Balding stable is this Ulysses colt. He was an eye-catcher on debut in the Peter Willett at Goodwood in September having been carried left at the start and then squeezed for room at the finish. He returned later the same month in the prestigious Haynes Hanson & Clark Stakes at Newbury, where he made light work of the opposition winning comfortably under Oisin Murphy. Out of the Group three winner Regal Realm he was bought for 70,000 guineas at the 2023 Book 2 Tattersalls sale in Newmarket and from what we've seen so far that may look a bargain.

Centigrade - Trainer: Ralph Beckett

Ralph Beckett's horses will be featuring plenty in this list and this Too Darn Hot colt could be the most promising of the males. Out of a half-sister to crack two-year-old Sergei Prokofiev. He was second on debut to the smart Jonquil (now with Andrew Balding) on his debut in the summer at Sandown and after a break made all to score by five and a half lengths at Newbury in October. Beckett said: ' He's a nice horse for next year and we should have plenty of fun with him'. Bought at the Arqana Breeze-Up sale by Highclere and their members have a lot to look forward to with this lad.

That's Amore - Trainer: Ralph Beckett

Another late-season winner this time on debut for Beckett was this New Bay filly out of the Lope De Vega mare Rubira whose progeny include the smart handicapper Persica. That's Amore's connections however will be hoping that she can reach greater heights as she shone on debut when clearly well fancied going off the 11/10 favourite and winning impressively by six lengths. You could say it wasn't a strong race that That's Amore won which at the moment is borne out by what some of those in behind have done since. However the second Celestial Pearl was thought good enough to start in the Newmarket maiden which was won by Verse Of Love. Celestial Pearl certainly stepped up from her debut as at one point she threatened to give That's Amore a race but once Hector Crouch asked her to go it was a case of name the distance. Interestingly since her debut Lady Bamford has purchased That's Amore privately and she could be looking at an Oaks Trial come the spring where hopefully we are all bursting into song!

Alobayyah - Trainer: William Haggas

Another filly who could be looking at an Oaks Trial come springtime is this Ghaiyyath filly. Bought for 115,000 guineas at Tatts Book 2 in 2023, Alobayyah went some way to paying that back when scoring at Yarmouth over a mile in October, when beating the more experienced Karl Burke trained Royal Agenda. Bred to stay on both sides being by the aforementioned Ghaiyyath and of a Samum mare which means she comes from a stout staying German family, Samum did manage to win the Prix Miesque at two and is from the immediate family of Queen Mary winner Dramatised. However, I expect Alobayyah to take after her staying genes and is currently 25/1 for the Oaks itself.

Crown Of Oaks - Trainer: William Haggas

After talking about the Oaks it's now time to talk about Crown Of Oaks. Bought for 260,000 at the 2023 Tatts Book 1 Sale by William Haggas, though it was professional gambler Patrick Veitch who advised Crown Of Oaks’ owner Tony Bloom and Ian McAleavy, who are both also known for their punting exploits. Back to the horse who enters his three year old career as a maiden but he should have no problem shedding that tag based on what he did on the Rowley Mile on his debut. During the race his position of mid-division proved a disadvantage. As it developed, front runners had a distinct advantage (as is normally the case at Newmarket). But he ate up the ground in the last furlong to be a strong staying on third to Secret Theory and Spirit Of Summer who is now rated ninety. His finishing effort was not only striking, but he can be marked up on that based on where he was positioned. Likely to stay at least a mile and possibly further William Haggas should have another nice colt to go to war with this year.

Kibris - Trainer: Joseph O'Brien

Back over the Irish sea now and this son of Lope De Vega was another that my bloodstock friend liked when he saw Kibris as a yearling at the Goffs Orby Sale who is out of May Hill Stakes runner-up Dark Rose Angel. He was bought by Anthony Bromley of Highflyer for 155,000 Euros and judging by his debut win at the Curragh that could be money well spent. Well backed late on he took the scalp of no less than twenty-six rivals in the mile maiden at Irish Flat Racing HQ. Kibris’ jockey Dylan Browne McMonagle was full of praise saying:' He's a gorgeous big horse and the race set up lovely for him. He travelled well and was very professional', he continued. 'He picked up better than I thought he would. He has plenty about him and is one to look forward to'. All I say is Dylan let's hope so.

Almeric- Trainer: Andrew Balding

Back to the Balding’s now and another middle-distance prospect for them is by the same sire as Kalpana in Almeric, a Study Of Man half-brother to nine winners, including group three winner Alla Speranza and the dam of another Kingsclere favourite Shine So Bright. It's fair to say Balding knows the family well, and he decided to wait until mid-September to give the debut where he was a bit slow on the uptake as most of Balding’s newcomers are when the stalls opened, before finishing strongly to take fourth in a mile maiden at Sandown. Almeric was much more streetwise at York on his second start when getting the better of the well regarded Roger Varian trained Ride The Thunder in what was a prolonged battle on the Knavesmire. Hopefully he could be a group horse for his owner-breeder Kirsten Rausing.

Cathedral - Trainer: Ralph Beckett

The day before Almeric got off the mark at York, this Frankel filly was also on her second outing, but had to settle for second behind the Aidan O'Brien trained Merrily in the Oh So Sharp Stakes at Newmarket. However she got off the mark in sparkling fashion at Lingfield where according to the market, winning was a formality as she was sent off the 1/2 favourite having opening at 4/5 in the show and was bigger prices than that the night before. Cathedral certainly read the script and won by four and a quarter lengths without a moments worry. My thoughts on why she didn't win the Oh So Sharp was put simply as lack of experience. The winner Merrily had five previous starts before beating Cathedral where she had only had one, and on a difficult track such as Newmarket with all it's undulations I'm taking a positive view about her moving forward. Bought for 800,000 Euros for Amo Racing they will be hoping she can make an impact this year especially after the loss of their Convivial winner Angelo Buarranotti.

Thunder Run - Trainer: Karl Burke

Normally in this list I focus on the improving three year olds, but this time around I wanted to put some handicappers in who could potentially progress to something better and Thunder Run is the first of those. This Night Of Thunder gelding first came on my radar when easily disposing of The Reverend in a mile novice at Thirsk. After that he went onto to score comfortably at prohibitive odds at Hamilton Park. However, it was in the William Hill Summer Cup back at Thirsk where he caught my eye as he was heavily backed into 4/6 favourite but plenty went wrong as jockey Danny Tudhope dropped his whip inside the final furlong and then was tenderly handled after that, and finished third as a result. Thunder Run was on his game in the Clipper Handicap at York which his owner sponsors, so no doubt it was great to see him lead for the majority of the contest before getting on top close home to win by half a length from Mirsky. Thunder Run then went to the Balmoral Handicap on Champions Day but was disadvantaged when having to race away from the main group in the early stages, and when he eventually joined the main group he looked like he was going to play a serious hand in the finish. However those early exertions put paid to his chances as Carrytheone came over the top to win. What this showed though was that Thunder Run can cope with soft ground and with him being entered in the Lincoln I can see him been a serious player in that race if indeed he goes there and conditions are in his favour.

Mount Atlas - Trainer: Andrew Balding

The Kingsclere handler had a raft of nice middle-distance and staying three year old’s last year and one of them was this Masar gelding. Unraced at two, he had an inauspicious start to his career when unseating Will Carver at Windsor in April last year and was then very green at Nottingham in May, but he then won two of his next three starts, the latter being a handicap at Ascot over twelve furlongs. Mount Atlas then had a slight hold up before being beaten by the highly progressive Sun God in the Old Rowley Cup at Newmarket. He travelled supremely well that day and I personally believe that Oisin Murphy went for home too soon and although he wouldn't have beaten Sun God he rather played into his hands. Now gelded, he remains very lightly raced and could be a candidate for the Ebor this season.

Sun God - Trainer: Hughie Morrison

If I'm putting Mount Atlas in I have to also but Sun God in, a half-brother to group winner Sumo Sam. Before Sun God got the better of Mount Atlas at Newmarket he ran a very respectable fifth in the Melrose but didn't see the trip out in the final furlong. As always the Melrose looked a strong race and third home Master Builder since won impressively in a competitive handicap at Haydock before been undone in a small field tactical affair at York afterwards. However, down in trip he proved too good for Mount Atlas and drew clear in the style of a possible pattern performer. Even if I do think his winning margin slightly flattered him on the day there is no getting away from the fact that Sun God is a horse who will be worth following in those middle-distance staying handicaps this season.

King's Gambit - Trainer: Harry Charlton

Now this lad is far from a handicapper but he started as a three year old by routing his opposition in the London Gold Cup Handicap on Lockinge Day at Newbury. It's a race the Charlton's have done well in the past with the likes of Al Kazeem, Time Test, Imperial Aviator and Headman all winning the contest for the yard. King's Gambit indeed won by four lengths and Persica who finished fourth that day went on to enhance the form by winning three times subsequently. Royal Ascot then beckoned for the son of Saxon Warrior but unfortunately it all went wrong as William Buick had him too far back and then ran into trouble in the home straight and still only went down narrowly to ill-fated Jayarebe. I then saw King's Gambit for the first time in the flesh for the Sky Bet York Stakes, and I have to say I haven't seen many better looking horses in my time of following the sport as he has a beautiful long stride and just oozes class. However, unfortunately he was undone by a tactical affair there. He then came back to York for the Great Voltigeur which again was a small field and for my money he didn't stay, but he wasn't helped by Buick deciding that the middle of the track was a better place to be than nearer the far rail as Ryan Moore was on the winner Los Angeles. Charlton then rolled the dice with King's Gambit and put him in the Qipco Champion Stakes, now he may only have finished seventh but Oisin Murphy was full of praise for him afterwards saying:' We went too fast but for him to still keep on and to be only beaten six lengths in that field was extraordinary and he hated the ground'. It's fair to say not much has gone right for King's Gambit since Newbury but hopefully that will change this season and since his last run he's been purchased privately by Wathnan Racing and is likely to reappear soon to try and claim a big money pot out in Qatar.

Field Of Gold - Trainer: John & Thady Gosden

Back to the three-year-olds now and this Kingman colt was bought for 530,000 euros as a foal from the Goffs November sale in 2022. Like most Gosden newcomers Field Of Gold was in need of his first run which was compounded by the fact that he got upset in the stalls and was slowly away. Despite all that Field Of Gold looked like he was going to make a serious challenge over a furlong out but when let down he was completely clueless, wandered around and in the end stuck on to be third beaten two and three quarter lengths by New Century, who since then went onto win the Listed Stonehenge Stakes at Salisbury and then won a big pot in a Grade One out in Canada at Woodbine. Field Of Gold himself then bolted up on the July Course and after the race one of his trainers John Gosden was full of praise saying: ' I loved that it's always a race we like bringing a nice horse to you know and say he's a best two year old as we stand here'. The second that day Starzintheireyes has remained unbeaten since including taking the Group Three Zetland Stakes at Newmarket. Gosden’s as is their custom bring their best colts to the Solorio Stakes in which he comfortably dealt with some smart types in Matauri Bay and Royal Playwright. His final run then came in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere but he was far too keen and given the really soft ground he was never going to see his race out. In fairness Field Of Gold's dam Princess De Lune was 'a bit of a hothead when I rode her' said jockey Kieran Shoemark. But I certainly won't be giving up on him this year and could he possibly break the Gosden hoodoo and finally win the 2,000 Guineas for them?

Chancellor - Trainer: John & Thady Gosden

As I said earlier most Gosden newcomers need their first run and that looked the case on debut for Chancellor as he dwelt when the stalls opened and then was a bit short of room, but after that everything else went fairly smoothly. As he made headway from over two out and then in the last hundred yards went away in the style of a promising horse. The son of Kingman then went to the Pat Eddery Stakes at Ascot but he once again got bumped at the start, lost a shoe and still managed third, only a length and a half behind New Century who was second to Al Qudra. Both those horses who finished in front of Chancellor went on to be first and second in the Grade 1 Summer Mile out in Woodbine with New Century turning the form around. Chancellor then stepped back into Novice company and won comfortably from Brave Mission who has won since. Unfortunately though Chancellor again encountered problems but this time of his own doing at Doncaster as he burst through the front of the stalls when favourite for the Champagne Stakes. According to reports he's done well over the winter to the extent that Rab Havlin put him up as a horse to follow when interviewed in the Weekender by former jockey Georgia Cox.

Falconer - Trainer: Andrew Balding

Nottingham maidens at the back end of the season are always worth noting and that certainly seems to be the case once again as this New Bay colt drew clear with the Ralph Beckett trained El Matador coming out on top by half a length. Again he wasn't fully wound up for his debut and he overcame inexperience under Callum Hutchinson, in traditionally a strong race (won by Adayar in 2020). A half-brother to three winners over nine to fourteen furlongs, Falconer looks sure to appreciate a step up in trip this season and could potentially be a cup horse in the future.

El Matador - Trainer: Ralph Beckett

As mentioned El Matador went down to Falconer on debut, however he disappointed punters going off the heavily backed 8/11 favourite and looked the winner two furlongs from home. However, he was carried left by Falconer a furlong out which may have caused him to become slightly unbalanced and despite keeping on to the line he could never get the past the stoutly bred Balding horse. Bought for 140,000 as a yearling by Alex Elliott on behalf of Valmont he's a real looker and I'm sure like many Ralph Beckett horses this season he can make his name felt amongst the better races this season.

Gulya - Trainer: Roger Varian

This Night Of Thunder filly was picked up as a foal on behalf of Nurlan Bizakov for 200,000 from the Goffs November foal sale in 2022. She was supposed to make her debut at Salisbury and was well backed before being withdrawn on the morning of the race. I then saw her in the flesh at Doncaster’s St Leger Meeting where she was well backed again but had to give second best to Whirl who before that had ran in the Convivial maiden at York and therefore was running against her own sex when accounting for Gulya. In addition Whirl then went onto win the Group Three Staffordstown Stakes at the Curragh. So the fact Gulya despite being keen under Silvestre De Sousa (surprise surprise) finished an eye-catching second to a now Group Three winner It can only be matter of time before she gets off the mark.

Janey Mackers - Trainer: David Menuisier

This well-bred daughter of New Bay surprisingly only cost her trainer 72,000 guineas at the Tatts December yearling sale in 2023. It was likely that Janey Mackers needed her debut at Yarmouth but still ran a respectable third to the promising Hot Flame and the second Bintjeddah had won at Haydock prior to that. But she made no mistake on her second start at Doncaster when always prominent and then going clear under champion jockey Oisin Murphy to win easily by five and a half lengths. Now the form of that race from those in behind may not be much to write home about, however it's clear that David Menuisier's horses improve as they get older and like they hold her in high regard hence her Irish Oaks entry.

Perfect Your Craft - Trainer: Ralph Beckett

If you wanted a horse that is going to stay the Oaks trip then Perfect Your Craft is that horse. By Mastercraftsman out of the Galileo mare Pandora it was a surprise that she only made 110,000 guineas as a yearling, as when I saw her she looked a lovely filly. Given her pedigree, it was no surprise to see her make her debut late in the season, which came at Salisbury. Heavily backed in the market late on, she ran green but when the penny dropped she managed to run down Whatcombe and win by a cosy neck. This performance certainly indicated that Perfect Your Craft will be better over further than a mile which would befit her pedigree and given that she has been given an Irish Oaks entry an Oaks Trial is once again looking on the cards for this Ralph Beckett inmate.

I Am I Said - Trainer: Ralph Beckett

Yes it's Ralph Beckett again! And this Almanzor colt looks a lovely middle-distance prospect in the making. He made his only start in the future stayers novice over a mile on Newmarket’s two year old day fixture. The race in question has been won in the past by the likes of Cracksman and Hurricane Lane. Now that maybe a bit to live up to but I Am I Said could do no more than win in decisive fashion and needing little encouragement to go away from two rivals who were rated in the mid-eighties. He maybe named after the Neil Diamond track but more importantly he's a half-brother to last year's John Smith's Cup winner Enfjaar and is sure to stay at least ten furlongs this season and therefore a Derby trial beckons.

Digub - Trainer: William Haggas

I was lucky to see this Sea The Stars filly as a yearling when she took my breath away at Tatts Book 1 sale of 2023 and it was no surprise that she made a fair whack of 360,000 guineas for the Thoroughbred Racing Corporation. Given her stamina ladened pedigree it was understandable that she didn't appear until late September over seven furlongs which looked on the sharp side for her, as after pulling quite hard and running green she kept on well under tender handling to be a promising fourth. The winner Saqqara Sands was second in a Listed Race on her next start, and the second, Texas Starlight won on her next start at Southwell before bumping into a nice sort at Lingfield when second after that. The third was indeed Wild Angel who set the standard. However, I'd expect Digub to improve markedly for that when seen in the spring and a maiden or a novice looks a sheer formality for her.

Sandtrap - Trainer: Ralph Beckett

I'm almost trying to stop putting so many Beckett horses in but this another filly who can't be ignored. Again I was fortunate to see this Lope De Vega filly as a yearling when bought for 450,000 guineas by Alex Elliott on behalf of Valmont. However, Ballylinch who consigned Sandtrap at the sales must have liked her as they retained a fifty percent share in the filly. Another one given time by her trainer the dogs were certainly barking her name when Sandtrap turned up for her debut at Salisbury and she didn't disappoint, winning comfortably by four and three quarter lengths from Jowddah, who had had a run before when second at Newmarket and then finished second subsequently at Yarmouth to Rhapsody (more on her shortly). However it was the comments afterwards that interested me with Beckett saying: 'There was a bit of pressure today as she had worked well ten days ago so it wasn't a surprise that she did that, she still has to grow into her frame but she's a nice filly and one to look forward to next year'. It was then decided that a trip to Deauville was in the offering for Sandtrap, and despite been well backed again I personally feel the deep ground was to blame as although she is by Lope De Vega who is a soft ground influence, she has an all American dam side to her pedigree and her sister Carl Spackler certainly enjoys top of the ground in America. Therefore back on a sounder surface this year she could be a dark horse that could end up being a top class mile to middle distance filly by the end of 2025.

Rhapsody - Trainer: William Haggas

I promised we'd talk about Rhapsody so here it goes, as mentioned she beat Jowddah on her debut at Yarmouth when seemingly an unfancied 14/1 shot. But she defied market expectations and kept on well to the line to win by half a length. This year though it's all going to be about the middle distance fillies races for Rhapsody and it will be interesting to see where Haggas pitches her as he's got a few staying three year old fillies to compare her too. By Ghaiyyath and out of a Motivator mare, surely an Oaks trial has to be under consideration given her pedigree being chocked full of stamina.

Tuscan Hills - Trainer: Raphael Freire

It's not often Thirsk is the breeding ground for top class horses but there were a couple of nice types that turned up at the Yorkshire venue last year and he's one of them. Even though he was slowly away he kept on well and went clear in the twinkle of an eye to win by two and three quarter lengths. The form may not have been anything special but the time was very good with Racing TV presenter Angus McNae highlighting him as a horse to keep on side on The Verdict. A step up in grade was therefore warranted for Tuscan Hills and it was the Listed Silver Tankard that was nominated. After looking the pick of the paddock by a country mile he eased to the front two furlongs from home and won comfortably four and three quarter lengths from Calla Lagoon who had won prior to that at Ascot, and the Silver Tankard is a race Beckett tends to run one of his nicer staying two year old types in (Westover was second in 2021). Well-bred by Night Of Thunder out of a Sea The Stars mare it's conceivable that Tuscan Hills will be even better on better ground this year and if he is, he could be a lively outsider for the Derby.

Chantez- Trainer: Ger Lyons

Back over to Ireland now and this filly could be the one to make a splash this season. I was drawn to this filly straight away as she is out of one of my favourite race mares as I remember seeing her win her last start in Britain for Timothy Jarvis at Newbury when taking a Listed Race by half a length. After that she went to race in America for William Mott and straight away won a Group Two at Gulfstream. Therefore, I was always going to be interested in her progeny and Chantez herself was picked up by Newtown Anner Stud as a yearling for 220,000 from Tatts Book 1 in 2023. On debut Chantez got upset in the stalls but ran a terrific race to be just headed on the line by Exactly with the pair pulling three and a quarter lengths clear of the third. Chantez made no mistake on her second start again at Leopardstown winning comfortably by three lengths from Indigo Dream. It was then on Irish Champions weekend where she could extract revenge on an Aidan O'Brien runner as she made smooth headway and after leading a furlong from home she jinked right but saw off Garden Of Eden to win by three quarters of a length. By Wootton Bassett, she is a half-sister to the King Edward VII Stakes winner Changingoftheguard, and having already emulated her dam as a Listed winner, she has bright prospects of stepping up further in grade on a sound surface.

Music Piece - Trainer: Andrew Balding

Another lovely prospect for Doreen Tabor and Andrew Balding is this Camelot filly. She was second on debut at Ascot in September to subsequent Group One placed Ballet Slippers. Music Piece then got off the mark at Haydock at the second time of asking, when winning nicely over a mile under David Probert. Sure to stay further - her dam was group placed over twelve and fourteen furlongs she is one to keep onside this season.

Consent - Trainer: Sir Mark Prescott

This was another nice horse who started out at Thirsk. It certainly was a long way to send her for Sir Mark Prescott but she did just that on debut and scored by two lengths from the more experienced Shining Pearl and looked a promising filly in the process. Consent only faced one rival when sent to Haydock for a fillies novice but despite going off the well backed 6/5 favourite she was outpaced and hung left two furlongs from home and had to give second best to none other than Music Piece. By Lope De Vega and out of a Galileo mare it's fair to assume she is going to improve as she gets older especially given who trains her. Bought for 260,000 euros as a yearling by Oliver St Lawrence she could be another exciting prospect for Denford Stud and could she even possibly develop into the next Alpinista?

Falling Snow - Trainer: Donnacha O'Brien

Now Ballet Slippers may have beaten Music Piece when she was making her debut, however she couldn't fend off Falling Snow on her debut as this Justify filly managed to get up by a neck to deny the odds on favourite. Out of the former 1,000 Guineas winner Winter, she could well be more of an Oaks filly based on her debut as she seemed to outstay Ballet Slippers at the Curragh. In addition her full-brother London City won over a mile and a half at least year's Dante Meeting so stamina could well be her forte this term and she is currently 20/1 for the Oaks.

Treble Tee - Trainer: Simon & Ed Crisford

This good looking son of Persian King got off the mark on his sole start on Newmarket's Rowley Mile when a well backed 100/30 winner, which is never a bad thing from the Crisford stable. Always in a prominent position and despite edging left in the dip he soon went clear when he came out of it, winning nicely by two and a quarter lengths from Mudbir (more on him in a second). The third Humam was then second on his next start at Doncaster when bumping into So Darn Hot who on his last run bolted up in a class two handicap at Newcastle. Furthermore the fifth that day Pinhole has since comfortably won at Southwell so the form has a strong look to it and I'm hoping Treble Tee can impose himself in the colts division this season.

Mudbir - Trainer: John & Thady Gosden

As promised it's time to talk about this son of Kingman, owned by Shadwell, this horse came to my attention before having run at Newmarket as I managed to catch up with one of his trainers (Thady Gosden) and I asked him for a horse to follow and he nominated this lad saying:' He's a half-brother to Mostahdaf and he's coming along nicely he should be out later in the season'. Now Mudbir may have needed that run behind Treble Tee on debut but it was still a promising effort and if he can build on that then he can surely land a maiden or novice before going onto better things.

Bowmark - Trainer: John & Thady Gosden

Another exciting prospect for the Gosden's this term is also this son of Kingman who had to wait until December to make his debut. It was certainly worth it as he drew away in impressive fashion by four and a half lengths. A couple of weeks later jockey Kieran Shoemark was interviewed on Racing TV and was asked to nominate a horse to follow and he replied saying: 'Bowmark gave me a good feel the other day at Kempton and he looks a good horse hopefully for next year'. It also seems to be a slight change from the Gosden's that they were bringing more of the better two year old talent later on in the year on the all-weather and Bowmark could well be top of tree of the ones who are within the Clarehaven ranks.

Sand Gazelle - Trainer: John & Thady Gosden

This Frankel filly could well be another to keep the Gosden team warm over the winter period. Bought for 425,000 guineas at Tatts Book 1 in 2023 she looked lovely then and she still does now as despite been drawn in stall eleven round Kempton and running green she ended up running out a one and a quarter length winner, going away in the style of a promising filly. From a deep Juddmonte family Sand Gazelle may have to improve to get her herself into classic reckoning but rest assured she'll be worth keeping onside in 2025.

Seacruiser - Trainer: Ralph Beckett

This strapping son of Sea The Stars made his debut at Goodwood in the same race that Regal Ulixes did when finishing fifth after going off a well backed 5/2 favourite. However, he tried to make headway two furlongs out but then was short of room when coming with a challenge over a furlong out. Unfortunately he found nothing after that, but it was a different story when he made his second outing on the Rowley Mile as he was far more professional in making all and winning comfortably by a length and a quarter from Present Times, who came out and won on his third start at Lingfield. The third home Devil's Advocate then bolted up at short odds on his next start at Chelmsford so the form is there. But for me Seacruiser can go even further than a mile and a Derby Trial again has to come under consideration for this Kimpton Down inmate.

Devil's Advocate - Trainer: John & Thady Gosden

The aforementioned Devil's Advocate also makes the list and he's another who I saw when bought at Newmarket's Book 2 sale of 2023 when Godolphin bought him for 350,000 guineas. By Too Darn Hot out of the Nathaniel mare Precious Ramotswe, he ran like a typical Gosden newcomer when slowly away then looking clueless in the dip before staying on nicely when the penny dropped to be third. As I said he went to Chelmsford and dotted up but more is to come from this fellow I'm sure and it wouldn't surprise me if Gosden threw him into something like the conditions race at Newbury which Enable famously got beaten in by her stablemate Shutter Speed.

Shout - Trainer: Simon & Ed Crisford

This good looking son of Advertise didn't enjoy the greatest start when blowing it many lengths at Windsor on his debut, and as well as that he ran green but with all that he still finished fifth beaten two and three quarter lengths and the winner Rajeko who later on was pitched into the Acomb Stakes, but could only finish eighth behind The Lion In Winter, after a break came out and won at Chelmsford. On Shout's second start he made all to win nicely under Oisin Murphy in the style of a nice horse. However, on his third run he was less straightforward racing awkwardly throughout  and to add to that Ryan Moore dropped his whip over a furlong out. Therefore you could forgive him that. It was then onto Doncaster where he beat the highly touted Artagnan who had previously finished second from a bad draw in a valuable nursery at York's Ebor meeting. As well as that Simon Crisford recently put him up as a horse to follow in the Weekender and they have also taken to the decision to geld him so he may need his first run but in time that operation may well be the making of him.

Jettie's Run - Trainer: Ralph Beckett

We had to get another Beckett horse in there and I'll explain why. On debut at Kempton she was drawn widest of all in stall ten but was only beaten a length and a half by Magic Trail who had the perfect trip from stall one. Jettie's Run was then sent off a fairly short price for her next start and despite not breaking well from the stalls she was pushed out to win readily under Rossa Ryan by half a length from Bermuda Longtail who won next time. Indeed the third Maissara also won on her next outing at Newcastle in a nursery. By Wootton Bassett and out of a Scat Daddy mare Jo Jo Air, maybe she will need top of the ground to be seen at her best but looks another exciting filly for the Beckett stable to go to war with this season.

Bermuda Longtail - Trainer: Andrew Balding

Of course you knew I was going to put this filly in as well, as like when Jettie's Run made her debut Bermuda Longtail was drawn widest of all in stall ten at Kempton but ran a race full of promise to be second. She made no mistake on her second start when getting the better of the Beckett trained Dash Of Azure by one and three quarter lengths but always looked in control and was going away at the line. Her trainer was quoted afterwards saying: 'she's a nice filly for next year'. It's likely she will go for another novice next time though will Bermuda Longtail before hopefully having her sights raised after that and she could well be a flagbearer for her exciting sire Hello Youmzain.

Boatswain - Trainer: Simon & Ed Crisford

Gelded as a two year old we had to wait till Boatswain had turned three until we got to see him on a racecourse but by did he deliver. Hammered in the market late on he didn't let his backers down scoring by three and a quarter lengths from Chartwell Jock who won on his next start at Wolves. The third Thosewerethedays on his debut had finished seventh behind a certain Centigrade when needing the run, and he stepped up to run better here. However, he had no answer to Boatswain's charge. By New Bay and out of the Lope De Vega mare Bay Light, Rabbah Racing had to cough up 240,000 guineas for him as a yearling from Book 2 at Tattersalls. Afterwards it was mentioned that Boatswain could be a potential handicap project for Royal Ascot it would be interesting if he were but maybe connections may have higher aspirations for him than that.

The Watcher - Trainer: Karl Burke

Karl Burke's two year olds are always to be feared first time up and this Invincible Spirit colt certainly was feared by the bookmakers going off the even money favourite. He comfortably rained on Showering's parade who had won previously that month by a length and a half, with Clifford Lee looking around two furlongs out. The third home Rainbow Nebula also finished second to the Burke trained Rebel's Gamble on his next start and Rebel's Gamble himself nearly made this list so add him if you like as a brucey bonus! A solid stamp of a horse he looks a promising prospect for the Burke team and one we will certainly be watching in the months to come.

Glittering Surf - Trainer: Owen Burrows

Another impressive maiden winner in December was this Oasis Dream colt who sparkled on debut to win eased down by three and a quarter lengths from Pearl Of Hope who had a previous run at Newmarket. It was interesting that when Glittering Surf's trainer Owen Burrows spoke afterwards he said that the owner and his family were present to see 100,000 guineas purchase and based on what he did at Kempton that may well be money well spent.

Jockey To Follow - Jack Doughty

Something a bit different now but I always like putting a jockey forward for us to follow. If I'm being honest I hadn't seen much of Jack Doughty until I saw him win at Doncaster in the November Handicap on Lord Melbourne. He got the tactics spot on that day. However, it was the way he spoke to me afterwards that really impressed me as well as his happy demeanour. He couldn't land the Champion apprentice title last year but I'd expect that he'll make up for that this year and I'm sure he's a young lad going places.

Sire To Follow - Zarak

A bit like Jack Doughty I hadn't really taken much interest in Zarak's progeny, however it was interesting that quite a few good judges bought some of his stock at the Tattersalls Book 1 and 2 sales last year and one of his progeny Square D'Alboni looked an exciting horse for him when winning by four lengths in a Listed Race at Chantilly last season. At the Tattersalls sales at Book 1 the highest price paid for one of his progeny was the half-sister to Ottoman Fleet bought by Godolphin for 550,000 guineas. What I've also noticed is that his horses try very hard and always put their heads down and race. Therefore I'm intrigued to see how his two year olds fare this season given what prices some of them made at the sales.

Friday, 7 March 2025

CLAREHAVEN THIRTEEN - TO FOLLOW IN 2025

We would like to thanks David Pidduck for his hard work and forwarding his Lucky 13 to follow in 2025. David has been detailing his insight on our blog since 2022. Please take a moment to follow him on X @DarRemi
Firstly, a short recap of the 2024 list. We made a small profit (ROI 8.6%) thanks mainly to finding FRIENDLY SOUL and QUEEN OF THE PRIDE , with the group as a whole winning 16 times from 52 runs (30%) . 

The profit follows the 12.2% ROI profit from the 2023 list

So, the usual rules apply – 3yo ’ s can only have ran NO MORE THAN ONCE and 4yo ’ s that haven't ran more than twice, though I am breaking that rule this year! 

3yo’ s 

BANYAN (Lady Bamford) [Siyouni] 2/3/22 b f 2 - Her only start was over 7f on GS ground at Newmarket in early November and she finished a 3.5l second to a very promising Beckett filly, Bright Times Ahead, who already has two Classic entries . Her homework had been good before her debut and she will improve considerably for a step up in trip. From a family John & Thady know extremely well, her full sister Shiva Shakti ran with promise as a 2yo and was given an Oaks entry at three. Her classic season was blighted by injury, so her full potential wasn ’ t seen. I would be hopeful that BANYAN, with a clean injury free season, will be up to running in pattern races. 

BOWMARK (Lordship Stud) [Kingman] 13/3/22 b c 1 - The impressive winner of his only start as a juvenile, BOWMARK would have gone into plenty o f notebooks. With plenty of physical scope to improve upon over the winter, I hope he has grown and filled out, as he has the potential to be a Group class colt. He is laid back at home and does everything you ask of him without being flashy, which is normally a good sign. Ten furlongs will not be a problem and he already has a Prix du Jockey Club entry. 

CAJOLE (Cheveley Park) [Dubawi] 24/2/22 gr/ro f unraced at two. I was able to visit Clarehaven four times last year and on the final two visits, CAJOLE ’ s name was mentioned on more than one occasion as an unraced filly to follow. She is a lovely physical type with a good mind and is the fourth foal from the Group 1 winner, Persuasive, who won the QEII for John in 2017. I expect to see her start her career in April at either Newmarket or Newbury.

DAMYSUS (Wathnan Racing) [Frankel] 20/3/22 ch c 1 - An expensive Tatts Book 1 purchase, he was entered and declared for races in the summer but stiffness on the morning of his intended debut scuppered those plans. He did get a sole 2yo start in December though, which he won over 7Tap at Southwell by 2.5l and 6.5l. The second is a Godolphin gelding now rated 81 but the third has a mark of just 65. A step up in trip will most certainly suit and he has entries in two French Classics and the Betfred Derby. 

HOT FLAME (Sir Anthony) [Too Darn Hot] 30/4/22 b f 1 - I was alerted to her at the Clarehaven Open Day as ‘ a fighter ’ and I was not disappointed when she won her only start just over two weeks later. The second that day carried a 7lb penalty for a previous win and now has a mark of 84, whilst the third, another debutant, won well on her second start earning a RPR of 90, so the form is already looking to have some substance. Rab said afterwards that she has a lovely attitude and she will stay 10f no problem next season. I wonder if she could be a Pretty Polly ( listed) contender on 1,000 Guineas day. It’s a race John and Thady love to run one of our better fillies in. A further note was that her division was two seconds quicker than the one Zanzoun finished 3rd in 35 minutes later. 

KAIZEN (Qatar Racing, China, Howden & Newsells) [Kingman] 9/3/22 b c 6 - This colt was the subject of some glowing reports before his debut in late October and his 6th place finish at Southwell was underwhelming. He cost a lot and his pedigree is excellent, being a half - brother to the 2023 Fillies Mile winner Ylang Ylang. However, David Redvers and Oisin Murphy both suggested in separate interviews earlier in the year that this colt could be special and they are normally correct with their assessments. In addition, whilst talking to John in September, the initial thought was to run him in a mile maiden / novice either at Newmarket or Nottingham and although he was entered, he was never declared. So his run round a sharp seven at Southwell may well have been far too sharp for him and th e first three all have decent form to their names. For those reasons, he deserves to be on this list. 

KALEIDO (Prince A A Faisal) [Make Believe] 20/4/22 b c 2 - A full brother to MISHRIFF, this colt made a very promising debut in late October over 7S at Donny, chasing home a once raced Godolphin Dubawi colt called Music Of Time. He has been given two French Classic entries and a Derby entry so far and if he can progress anywhere close to what his full brother did at three (and four), then he will have an extremely bright future. He has also been given a 2,000 Guineas entry this week, and is the only one of our four that has yet to win a race. 

KENNETH (Normandie Stud) [Kingman] 2/3/22 b c (At Clarehaven 3/10/24) unraced as a juvenile Philippa Cooper (Normandie Stud) is one of my top three owners. Her interviews are always interesting and her passion for her horses shines through every time. Since her first big race win in 2002, she has had 12 Group winners and 15 listed winners. Incredibly, 11 of those Group winners have been trained by John (and latterly with Thady) and eight of the Listed wins have also been with the Gosden’s. All three top flight wins and all four Group 2’ s have been gained with John training her horses. Philippa has scaled down her st ring in recent years but she has kept the 2022 foal from her beloved Gretchen who entered training at Clarehaven in October last year. Her horses are always so well pre - schooled so the lateness isn’t a problem. Being a half - brother to Gregory and Lionel, who have won at Group 2 and Listed level respectively , the pedigree page is strong. Those pair were sired by Golden Horn and Lope De Vega, so I am extremely interested in seeing how this Kingman sired colt will go. In a Racing Post Weekender interview with Rab Havlin in mid - January, he was asked for an unraced 3yo to follow and Rab chose Kenneth. Rab will be riding him, as he does all of Philippa ’ s horses that are stabled at Clarehaven, so I would have expected him to have ridden him on more than one occasion before the interview. 

MUDBIR (Shadwell) [Kingman] 1/5/22 b c 2 - John and Thady know this Shadwell family extremely well and Mudbir ’ s top four siblings have all been trained at Clarehaven, all achieved a RPR of 99+ and the top pair, Mostahdaf and Nazeef won four Group 1’ s and two Royal Ascot races between them. Neither of them ran at two, so Mudbir ’ s encouraging performance at Newmarket ’ s traditional 2yo ’ s day meet in the latter part of October was another positive. The performances of the next three home behind Mudbir has strengthened the form of the race as well. Both Mostahdaf and Nazeef ’ s form rose to another level from September of their 3yo careers, through to the following season, so Mudbir may be a slow burner for the first half of the sea son. But I still expect him to be winning races in 2025. 

SAND GAZELLE (Thoroughbred Racing Corporation) [Frankel] 8/3/22 ch f 1 - The form of her only race, which was a winning one, doesn’t seem that strong and after opening at 9/2 24 hours before that race, she drifted alarmingly, all the way out to 20/1. But the positives for this filly more than outweigh those points in the previous paragraph. I spoke to John & Thady on separate visits last year and both liked Sand Gazelle back in July and September respectively. She is sired by Frankel and cost a fair bit. The 7f trip of her debut was on the short side for her and she will improve for a step up to a mile, even 10f. Finally, she has been given French Classic entries over a mile and 10.5f, suggesting she has talent and she has wintered well. 

TYCOON (Bjorn) [Kingman] 10/2/22 b c 3 - The form of his only start as a 2yo is good and the two that beat him that day are both well thought of. Finishing off his race well, a step up to a mile plus would be an obvious plus. In addition to those points, George Baker described him a lovely big type, “ takes your eye out ”, and he felt he would tighten up for the run, and was very much a 3yo, unlike the race winner. Although he got an entry in the 1m Doncaster maiden at the St Leger meeting, he didn’t run in the race, but John has always targeted that race with his most promising juveniles, so I still take that as a good sign. We still had a runner in that race, and he is the next horse on my list. Finally, Thady likes this colt a lot. I spoke to him at length at the Open Day about Tycoon and nothing he said to me then was anything but a positive. He was given a Group 1 Futurity entry, has a Prix du Jockey Club entry and is in the initial entries for the Betfred Derby. These last two suggest he has wintered well. 

VALEDICTORY (Godolphin) [Cracksman] 29/3/22 b c 3 - This colt was the chosen one for the Doncaster maiden that I mentioned in the Tycoon section. John has targeted this race for 25 years, going back to Theatre Script, who was our potential 2001 Derby horse before injuries took their toll. Our best horse to run in the race has been Nathaniel who finished second at Donny, but his career was a terrific one. From a family John and Thady know well, this colt was sold at Book 2 and Godolphin sent him to Clarehaven. Now the form of the race hasn’t worked out, but Valedictory finished his race off well after being second last at the three furlong pole. He has been given Prix du Jockey Club and Betfred Derby entries already this year, so I am pleased by those. 

4yo ’ s 

SARDINIAN WARRIOR (Marc Chan) [Saxon Warrior] 17/2/21 b c 2 - 111 - I make no apologies for having this colt on my To Follow list for the second year running, and for breaking my self - imposed “4 yo ’ s no more than twice raced rule ”, as we still haven’t seen the ceiling of his ability. Unfortunately, he is a little fragile, and he doesn’t get to the track as often as any of us would like, but when he does race, he progresses and improves by 10lb+ , according to RPR ’ s. He has an OR of 107, and personal best RPR of 113 and he has only ran in one handicap and not at all in a pattern race. 

Monday, 30 December 2024

Horse Racing: Betting Against the Favourite & Why It Makes Sense

By its very nature, the favourite is headline news. The good, old, jolly, is the horse punters want to win and the bookmakers won't to lose. Favourites come and go. We've seen them 'hose up' 'impressively' and others tailed off last. But what are we meant to make of the chance of the favourite in any given race?

Now, that is a very open question. Why? Because in truth we can only take each horse as an individual (or try too because everything is relational). Most punters bet on the favourite. It may have the best form, the biggest reputation, or run in an egg and spoon race and look a little better than the rest of the field. Let's face it, someone has to win. 

But is betting on the favourite a good idea?

If your horse wins - it's an excellent idea. There is vaue in a winning 1/20f as it shows a 5% return on investment. Better than putting your money in the bank some may say. But even the shortest priced favourites may be beaten. Even the best of the best horses lose. The maxim: 'There is no certainty in racing'. 

So the question we need to ask is on average is it a good idea to bet on the favourite? Let's say you have 100 bets on favourites. This could be categorised in a number of ways from a random selection, your picks or a professional tipping service. The answer to winning or losing is clearly based on skill. 

Someone who is excellent at punting may show a profit. 

If you make your betting pay you are a winner. 

But betting on the favourite isn't a sure way of making money. It was never going to be that easy, hey. If you bet on every favourite you would lose money. So skill is involved. But what I would say to any gambler who makes their betting pay dedicated to backing the favourite (often seen as the best horse in the race). Perhaps you would be better off using your skill to select speculative-priced horses? That 33/1 shot each-way would return a great profit for a place let alone a win. 

From my betting perspective I have a maxim: 'I always look to take on the favourite when betting in two-year-old races'. 

I do this for a number of reasons: 

1) Often two-year-old debutantes are price by trainer and reputation but inexperience often sees even the best horses lose. 

2) Many horse trainers (often the larger stables) don't have the best strike rate with favourites. This is why you need to understand data to see the bigger picture. 

3) Very often a favourite has had a few hard races and sooner or later they are likely to regress and lose. They lose as a beaten favourite. This is a dream angle for bookmakers and a weakness for you as a punter. 

4) It's surprising how many times a strong favourite is beaten by a smart debutante. This doesn't happen by accident. These horses are often followed by opposing trainers who have a form line from a previous race and they are confident of the win. It also offer a bigger price and these juveniles are usually well backed.

5) Also, favourites are vulnerable. They are often forced a short price irrespective of changes of going, change in distance and many other variables. 

Whether you bet on favourites or not is a matter of opinion. Many people simply bet on the favourite every time. The answer is simple are you winning or losing betting on favourites? 

One last aspect is the thought that while you are focused on the favourite you are missing a bigger priced winner. 

I would focus on an area of racing you enjoy but don't be too quick to bet on the favourite. Or, at least if you do, make sure you understand that every favourite isn't a good thing. In fact, many are a losing waiting to happen. 

Author: Jason 

Photo: JC 

Friday, 27 December 2024

5 Common Mistakes Gambling Beginners Should Avoid

5 Common Mistakes Gambling Beginners Should Avoid
Gambling, whether in a casino or online, can be an exhilarating experience that combines luck, skill, and strategy. However, for beginners, navigating the world of gambling can be challenging, and there are common mistakes that many newcomers tend to make. Understanding these pitfalls can help beginners make informed decisions and enhance their overall gambling experience. 

1) Lack of Research: One of the most prevalent mistakes among gambling beginners is the failure to conduct adequate research. Whether it's choosing a game, understanding the rules, or selecting a reputable casino or online platform, knowledge is crucial. Many newcomers dive into gambling without fully understanding the odds, strategies, and potential risks involved. It's essential to take the time to educate oneself about the games of interest, odds, and the terms and conditions of the chosen gambling platform. 

2) Ignoring Bankroll Management: Another significant error beginners make is disregarding proper bankroll management. Gambling without a clear budget and spending limits can lead to financial troubles. Beginners often get carried away with the excitement of the game, risking more money than they can afford to lose. Establishing a realistic budget, setting limits on losses, and knowing when to walk away are fundamental principles of responsible gambling. By practicing effective bankroll management, beginners can enjoy the thrill without jeopardizing their financial well-being. 

3) Chasing Losses: The temptation to recover losses is a common trap that many gambling novices fall into. After experiencing a series of losses, beginners often make the mistake of increasing their bets in an attempt to recoup what they've lost quickly. This strategy, known as "chasing losses," rarely ends well. It can lead to even greater financial setbacks and a negative impact on the overall gambling experience. Instead of chasing losses, it's advisable for beginners to accept losses as part of the game, stick to their budget, and focus on making informed decisions for the next round. 

4) Overlooking Game Rules and Strategies: Every gambling game has its own set of rules and strategies. Beginners often make the mistake of underestimating the importance of learning these rules and developing a basic strategy. Whether it's card games like blackjack or poker, or luck-based games like slots, understanding the rules and having a strategy can significantly improve a player's chances of success. Skipping this crucial step may result in unnecessary losses and frustration. 

5) Neglecting Emotional Control: Emotional control is a key factor in successful gambling. Beginners may find it challenging to manage emotions such as excitement, frustration, or anxiety, especially in the midst of a game. Emotional decision-making often leads to impulsive actions and poor choices. It's essential for beginners to remain calm, composed, and focused, irrespective of the outcome of a particular round. Developing emotional resilience and the ability to make rational decisions under pressure can contribute to a more enjoyable and profitable gambling experience. 

Conclusion: For gambling beginners, avoiding these common mistakes is vital for a positive and sustainable experience. By conducting thorough research, practicing effective bankroll management, resisting the urge to chase losses, understanding game rules and strategies, and maintaining emotional control, newcomers can set themselves on the path to becoming informed and responsible gamblers. Gambling can be a thrilling form of entertainment when approached with caution and a commitment to responsible play.

Photo: J. Coote (2024) 

Sunday, 15 December 2024

Can You Lose Betting The Martingale System?

Have you ever used the Martingale system and won?
 
The Martingale betting system is a popular betting strategy among gamblers, especially in games that offer even odds. The system is simple: a player doubles their bet after each loss, with the aim of recouping all losses and making a profit when they eventually win. The idea behind the Martingale betting system is that, with enough bets and a long enough winning streak, the player will eventually win enough to cover all their previous losses and make a profit.

While the Martingale betting system can seem like a surefire way to make money, there are several reasons why it can actually result in significant losses.

First, the Martingale system requires a player to have an infinite bankroll. This is because, as losses pile up and the player doubles their bet each time, the amount they need to bet in order to recoup their losses quickly becomes astronomical. For example, if a player starts with a £1 bet and loses five times in a row, their sixth bet would need to be £32 in order to recoup their losses and make a profit of £1. However, if they lose again, their seventh bet would need to be £64, and so on. With just ten consecutive losses, the player would need to bet £1,024, and by the time they have suffered twenty consecutive losses, their required bet would be over £1 million.

The second reason why the Martingale betting system can result in significant losses is that it assumes an unlimited betting limit. Most casinos and betting establishments have a maximum bet limit, which means that players using the Martingale system will eventually hit the limit and be unable to double their bet any further. When this happens, the player has two options: either accept the loss and start over, or increase their bet by a smaller increment and hope to recoup their losses over a longer period of time. However, even with a smaller incremental increase, the player will still need an infinite bankroll in order to keep playing and eventually make a profit.

Finally, the Martingale betting system assumes that winning and losing streaks are random and evenly distributed. In reality, however, winning and losing streaks can last much longer than expected, and a prolonged losing streak can quickly wipe out a player's bankroll. Additionally, many games of chance are designed to favor the house, which means that even with a long winning streak, a player is likely to eventually lose all their gains and then some.

In conclusion, while the Martingale betting system can seem like an effective way to make money, it is ultimately a flawed strategy that can result in significant losses. The system requires an infinite bankroll, an unlimited betting limit, and assumes that winning and losing streaks are random and evenly distributed, which is not always the case in real-world gambling scenarios. As such, it is advisable to avoid using the Martingale betting system and instead rely on more sustainable betting strategies that prioritize responsible gambling and bankroll management.

Photo: Pixabay (free) 

Saturday, 7 December 2024

Traditional Bookmaker vs Modern Bookmaker

Traditional Bookmaker vs Modern Bookmaker
Over the centuries, bookmakers have evolved significantly, transforming from informal betting exchanges to highly sophisticated and regulated entities in the modern gambling industry. These changes have been influenced by advancements in technology, shifts in societal attitudes towards gambling, and the implementation of strict regulations. Here, we will explore the key differences between bookmakers of the past and those of today.

Technological Advancements:

One of the most significant differences between bookmakers of the past and present is the rapid advancement of technology. In the past, bookmakers operated primarily through physical betting shops, taking bets manually and recording them in ledgers. Today, bookmakers operate both brick-and-mortar establishments and online platforms, offering punters the convenience of placing bets from their computers or mobile devices. This shift has not only increased accessibility for bettors but has also facilitated the growth of the gambling industry on a global scale.

Online Betting:

The rise of the internet and the advent of online betting platforms have revolutionized the gambling industry. Today, bettors can access a vast array of sports and events from all around the world with just a few clicks. Online bookmakers provide an extensive range of betting options, including traditional sports betting, casino games, virtual sports, and more. This accessibility has drastically expanded the customer base for bookmakers and made gambling a mainstream activity..... 

Live Betting and In-Play Markets:

In the past, bookmakers only offered pre-match betting options, where bets had to be placed before an event started. Today, the introduction of live betting and in-play markets allows bettors to place wagers while a game or event is in progress. This real-time betting feature adds an extra layer of excitement and engagement for punters, as they can make decisions based on the unfolding action.

Regulatory Frameworks:

Historically, bookmakers operated with little regulation, leading to potential issues like fraud and corruption. Today, bookmakers are subject to strict licensing requirements and regulations that vary from country to country. Regulatory bodies ensure that bookmakers adhere to responsible gambling practices, maintain the integrity of sports, and protect customers from potential harm. Compliance with these regulations has become a fundamental aspect of modern bookmaking.

Data Analysis and Odds Setting:

Advances in data analytics and modeling have significantly impacted the way bookmakers set odds. In the past, odds were primarily determined by bookmakers' subjective assessments and their knowledge of the betting market. Today, bookmakers employ sophisticated algorithms and statistical models to calculate odds, taking into account various factors such as historical performance, player injuries, weather conditions, and betting patterns. This data-driven approach has resulted in more accurate odds and improved risk management for bookmakers.

Advertising and Marketing:

In the past, bookmakers relied on traditional advertising methods like newspaper ads and word-of-mouth referrals. Today, they utilize multi-channel marketing strategies, including social media, search engine optimization, and targeted online advertising. The ubiquity of gambling-related advertisements has raised concerns about problem gambling and led to calls for stricter advertising regulations in many jurisdictions.

Responsible Gambling Initiatives:

With increased awareness of problem gambling, bookmakers today are actively engaged in promoting responsible gambling practices. They offer tools and resources for customers to set deposit limits, take breaks from gambling, or self-exclude if needed. Such measures aim to minimize the potential negative impacts of gambling on vulnerable individuals.

In conclusion, the evolution of bookmakers from the past to the present is marked by a transition from traditional betting shops to online platforms, leveraging technology for data analysis, and increased regulation to ensure fair and responsible gambling practices. These changes have made betting more accessible, diverse, and regulated, shaping the modern gambling industry as we know it today.

Photo: Pixabay (free) 

Friday, 29 November 2024

Ante-post Betting Positives & Negatives

Lots of punters love an ante-post bet. Personally, I can't say I've had much luck with this form of betting. However, my brother, Tony, had a big win on Finsceal Beo in 2007 (I know it was a long time ago). Jim Bolger's exceptional filly literally flew home at Newmarket. I'm pretty sure he bet at at odds of 11/2 and won a couple of grand. It all seemed very straightforward and watching the race that day very exciting. 


Another friend who loves his ante-post bets is Lowestoft pro gambler Jerry Banks who has done very well with some inspired bets. He has a few wagers lined up for the 1000 guineas including John Gosden's Commissioning who he got 25/1. Now at odds of 6/1 he looks to have a very good chance. (You can see her victory in the Fillies' Mile, below). 


Here is a beginners guide to ante-post betting.
 
Ante-post betting is a type of betting that involves placing bets on events, usually sports events, well in advance of the event itself. In the world of horse racing, ante-post betting is a popular form of wagering, where punters place bets on upcoming races days, weeks, or even months before they are due to take place. While ante-post betting can be exciting, it comes with both positives and negatives.

One of the positives of ante-post betting is that it allows punters to take advantage of potentially lucrative odds. Since the bets are placed well in advance of the event, the odds may be more generous, as there is more uncertainty about the outcome. This means that punters may be able to get better odds on their selection than they would if they waited until closer to the event.

Another positive of ante-post betting is the thrill of betting on something that is yet to happen. For many punters, the anticipation of the event can be almost as exciting as the event itself. Ante-post betting can also allow punters to study the form and make more informed decisions about their bets, as they have more time to research and analyse the competitors.

However, there are also some negatives to ante-post betting. One of the main drawbacks is that the bets are not guaranteed. If the selection is withdrawn from the event before the race, the bet is usually lost. This can be frustrating for punters who have already placed a significant amount of money on their selection, only to see it withdrawn from the race. 

Another negative of ante-post betting is that the odds can change significantly as the event draws closer. This means that the value of the bet may decrease, or even disappear altogether, as the odds become less favourable. This can be frustrating for punters who have placed their bets early in the hope of getting better odds, only to see the odds change in the days leading up to the event.

One example of a successful ante-post bet on a horse that was heavily gambled is the case of Dawn Run, who won the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 1986. Dawn Run was a mare, and at the time, no mare had ever won the Cheltenham Gold Cup. However, despite this, punters began to place significant bets on Dawn Run in the weeks leading up to the race.

By the day of the race, Dawn Run had been heavily backed, and her odds had been cut from 16/1 to 7/2. The punters who had placed their bets on Dawn Run were rewarded for their faith, as she went on to win the race, becoming the first mare ever to do so.

In conclusion, ante-post betting can be an exciting form of wagering, allowing punters to take advantage of potentially lucrative odds and study the form in more depth. However, it comes with the risk that the bets are not guaranteed, and the odds can change significantly before the event takes place. Punters who are considering ante-post betting should weigh up the positives and negatives before placing their bets, and remember that there is always an element of risk involved in betting.

Author: Jason 

Graphic: Canva